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 What should you look for when handicapping horses coming off a layoff? There are many key points to consider, which include how the thoroughbred performs after a rest, short or long.
One tricky aspect of handicapping is how to rate the chances of horses coming off layoffs.
Steve Klein, an outstanding handicapper for the Daily Racing Form, once wrote:
“The theory that previous comeback attempts can accurately predict the future comeback tries is terribly flawed. It is a cherished handicapping myth that I’ve never seen challenged in print. The problem is that the theory assumes that all layoffs are equal. They aren’t. Short layoffs aren’t usually a big deal.
“The stats on horses returning from layoffs of about a year are terrible. They yield the lowest return per dollar bet that I’ve seen from any test I’ve done. Don’t let the great trainer, the great jockey, or the fast workouts fool you. The percentages dictate that you should try to beat horses returning from long layoffs, especially at low odds.”
No matter the length of the layoff, there are several rules of thumb I follow:
The thoroughbred must have performed well in the past in similar circumstances, preferably winning right off the layoff.
The trainer should have a high percentage in this category, at least 15 percent.
Rested class horses at the allowance and stakes level are better bets than claimers.
Routers usually have a higher winning percentage than sprinters because the slower pace conserves energy.
I look for solid gate workouts, especially breezes at four or five furlongs. Horses returning from short layoffs, 30 to 60 days, should show a four-furlong workout within seven days of the race.
Those inactive from 61 days to six months show have worked at five furlongs or longer within two weeks.
In all cases, the times aren’t important.
I prefer horses second time off a layoff that showed speed and faded or has a closing running style, but came up short. That’s because, according to many experts, a horse may have needed a freshener and should improve next time out.
It’s always a good idea to check out body language in the paddock or post parade whether the runner is first or second time off a layoff. For example, you might notice first-time front wraps that could signal an injury and the tape might cover enlarged ankles.
The winning percentage for first-time front wraps is really low. Back wraps don’t seem to matter.
Many experts agree that a horse’s lucky number is 3 as in running third time off a layoff. That’s considered the most crucial start after a rest. And it makes no difference what the distance is.
Third time off a layoff is best in routes, some experts say, when preceded by a pair of improving sprints.
I have no hard rule when it comes to distances, but the thoroughbred must show some improvement in the preceding race.
The horse should race at a suitable distance. For example, lay off thoroughbreds going a mile or longer at first asking.
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